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The Effects of Unjustified Confidence: An Examination of Casino Blackjack Play & Performance

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The Effects of Unjustified Confidence: An Examination of Casino Blackjack Play & Performance
Rittmayer, Ashley Denise
Unjustified confidence, in particular overconfidence—whereby confidence exceeds knowledge—is one of the most robust findings in judgment and decision-making research (Plous, 1993). Further, despite little research, unjustified confidence has been presumed to produce poor decisions (e.g., Griffin & Tversky, 1992). The purpose of the present study is to explore what the perils of unjustified confidence may be. More specifically, a mediational model of unjustified confidence as a predictor of outcomes is proposed. In the present study, first, participants’ level of knowledge and related-confidence regarding casino blackjack was assessed. Then, an effective confidence manipulation either increased or decreased their mean confidence, thereby changing their level of unjustified confidence. Lastly, participants played at least 60 rounds of casino blackjack. Increased- and decreased-confidence participants demonstrated significant differences in perception of gains and losses, anxiety, risk-taking behavior, and information search and consideration, related to blackjack play and performance. Overall, the findings support the proposed model.
decision making
risk taking
unjustified confidence
rittad3@wfu.edu (authorEmail)
Eric R. Stone, PhD (committee chair)
Karen L. Roper (committee member)
Mark R. Leary (committee member)
Andrew M. Parker, PhD (committee member)
Rittmayer, Ashley Denise
2008-09-28T10:54:14Z (accessioned)
2010-06-18T18:56:46Z (accessioned)
2006-06-04 (available)
2008-09-28T10:54:14Z (available)
2010-06-18T18:56:46Z (available)
2005 (issued)
null (defenseDate)
Psychology (discipline)
Wake Forest University (grantor)
MA (level)
http://hdl.handle.net/10339/14648 (uri)
etd-05122005-165837 (oldETDId)
Release the entire work immediately for access worldwide. (accessRights)
I hereby certify that, if appropriate, I have obtained and attached hereto a written permission statement from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis, dissertation, or project report, allowing distribution as specified below. I certify that the version I submitted is the same as that approved by my advisory committee. I hereby grant to Wake Forest University or its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible, under the conditions specified below, my thesis, dissertation, or project report in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis, dissertation or project report. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis, dissertation, or project report. (license)

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